PEACE AND THE INTERNATIONAL 21 20 THE CLASS STRUGGLE sustaining of the Hapsburg Monarchy and its aggrandizement by a number of new territories; finally the establishment of a fictitious integrity of Turkey, under a German protectorate e.
the conversion of Asia Minor and Mesopotamia, in one form or another, into German provinces. In the end this would result in the actual military and economic hegemony of Germany in Europe. Not because they are in accord with the desires of imperialist agitators are these consequences of an absolute German military victory to be expected, but because they are the inevitable outgrowth of the world political position that Germany has adopted, of conflicting interests with England, France, and Russia in which Germany has been involved, and which have grown, during the course of the war, far beyond their original dimensions. It is sufficient to recall these facts to realize that they could under no circumstances establish a permanent worldpolitical equilibrium. Though this war may mean ruin for all of its participants, and worse for its defeated, the preparations for a new world war, under England leadership, would begin on the day after peace is declared, to shake off the yoke of Prussian German militarism that would rest upon Europe and Asia. German victory would be the prelude to an early second world war, and therefore, for this reason, but the signal for new feverish armaments, for the unleashing of the blackest reaction in every country, but particularly in Germany. On the other hand a victory of England or France would mean, in all likelihood, for Germany the loss of a part of her colonies, as well as Alsace Lorraine, and certainly the bankruptcy of the world political position of German militarism.
But this would mean the disintegration of Austria Hungary and the total liquidation of Turkey. Reactionary as both of these states are, and much as their disintegration would be in line with the demands of progressive development, in the present world political milieu, the disintegration of the Hapsburg Monarchy and the liquidation of Turkey would mean the bartering of their peoples to the highest bidder Russia, England, France, or Italy.
This enormous redivision of the world and shifting of the balance of power in the Balkan states and along the Mediterranean would be followed inevitably by another in Asia: the liquidation of Persia and a redivision of China. This would bring the English Russian as well as the English Japanese conflict into the foreground of international politics, and may bring, in direct connection with the liquidation of the present war, a new world war, perhaps for Constantinople, would certainly bring it, unescapably, in the immediate future. So a victory on this side, too, would lead to new, feverish armaments in all nations the defeated Germany, of course, at the head and would introduce an era of undivided rule for militarism and reaction all over Europe, with a new war as its final goal.
So the proletariat, should it attempt to cast its influence into the balance on one side or the other for progress or democracy, viewing the world policies in their widest application, would place itself between Scylla and Charybdis. Under the circumstances the question, victory or defeat, becomes, for the European working class, in its political, exactly as in its economic aspects, a choice between two beatings. It is, therefore, nothing short of a dangerous madness for the French Socialists to believe that they can give the death blow to militarism and imperialism, and clear the road for peaceful democracy, by overthrowing Germany.
Imperialism, and its servant militarism, will reappear after every victory and after every defeat in this war. There can be but one exception: if the international proletariat, through its intervention, should overthrow all previous calculations.
The important lesson to be derived by the proletariat from this war is the one unchanging fact, that it can and must not become the uncritical echo of the victory and defeat slogan, neither in Germany nor in France, neither in England nor in Austria. For it is a slogan that has reality only from the point of view of imperialism, and is identical, in the eyes of every large power, with the question: gain or loss of world political power, of annexations, of colonies, of military supremacy.
For the European proletariat as a class, victory or defeat of either of the two war groups would be equally disastrous. For